Politics, elections, economics
Kalshi contracts on politics, elections and the economy, collapsed onto claims rather than contracts and tracked continuously. Prices are what people are betting, not what is true.
Sections
Economics 1,284 claims 319 moves/h · $16.2M
Elections 19,877 claims · 91 at several sources 268 moves/h · $214.5M
Politics 1,154 claims · 65 at several sources 49 moves/h · $14.2M
Highest volume
- 91% Which party will win the U.S. House? — Democratic Party $21.5M
- 55% Los Angeles Mayor winner? — Karen Bass $12.2M
- 96% Fed decision in Oct 2026? — Fed maintains rate $11.0M
- 32% Texas Senate winner? — Ken Paxton $10.7M
- 46% Los Angeles Mayor winner? — Nithya Raman $10.5M
- 66% Texas Senate winner? — James Talarico $10.5M
- 100% Brazil Presidential election winner? — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva $10.1M
- 97% California Governor winner? — Xavier Becerra $7.5M
Biggest shifts
- +51pt Who will be the next President of the Federal Reserve Bank o 0.32→0.83
- -47pt When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? — Before Jan 1, 20 0.51→0.04
- -47pt How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 4 0.5→0.03
- -47pt How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 5 0.5→0.03
- +47pt US tariff revenue for 2026 — Above $80 billion 0.5→0.97
- +47pt US tariff revenue for 2026 — Above $100 billion 0.5→0.97
- +47pt US tariff revenue for 2026 — Above $200 billion 0.485→0.955
- -47pt What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027? — 0.505→0.035
Closing soon
- 76% US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? — Above 2.5% 2026-10-30
- 58% US real GDP growth in Q3 2026? — Above 3.0% 2026-10-30
- 80% Sweden rate decision in November — Hike 1-25bps 2026-11-04
- 54% Colombia rate decision in October — Hike 1-25bps 2026-10-30
- 15% US gas prices on Election Day — Above 4.25 2026-11-03
- 24% US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? — Above 3.5% 2026-10-30
- 69% Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in November — Maintai 2026-11-04
- 72% Israeli Knesset election: voter turnout — At least 5,700,0 2026-11-03
New markets
- How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 0 ↗ closes 2026-12-09 $345
- Russia unemployment rate in October — Above 2.1% ↗ closes 2026-12-02 $5
- Russia unemployment rate in October — Above 2.2% ↗ closes 2026-12-02 $3
- Will Robert White leave the D.C. Council before Election Day? ↗ closes 2026-11-03 $1
- Will Trump do anything on Oct 29, 2026? — Yes ↗ closes 2026-10-30 $0
- How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 1 ↗ closes 2026-12-09 $0
- How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 2 ↗ closes 2026-12-09 $0
- How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? — 3 ↗ closes 2026-12-09 $0
Books just opened
- 50% Toronto mayoral election winner? — Olivia Chow
- 98% Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%
- 48% Bank of Japan rate decision in October — Maintain current ra
- 48% Bank of Japan rate decision in October — Maintain current ra
- 98% Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?
- 98% Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?
- 98% Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?
- 98% Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?
Recently adjudicated
Nothing adjudicated yet. Readings need sources from outside the
market before they can run.